Medal Predictions

My bold medal predictions.  Last Winter Olympics, I got about one-third of the gold medalists right and about half the medalists.

ICE HOCKEY

Men
G:  Russia
S:  Canada
B:  United States

Women
G:  United States
S:  Canada
B:  Russia

FIGURE SKATING

Men
G: Patrick Chan, CAN
S: Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN
B: Daisuke Takahashi, JPN

Ladies
G:  Kim Yu-Na, KOR
S: Mao Asada, JPN
B: Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS

Pairs
G: Tatiana Volosozhar & Maxim Trankov, RUS
S: Aliona Savchenko & Robin Szolkowy, GER
B: Pang Qing & Tong Jian, CHN

Ice Dance
G: Meryl Davis & Charlie White, USA
S: Tessa Virtue & Scott Moir, CAN
B: Nathalie Péchalat & Fabian Bourzat, FRA

Team
G: Russia
S: Canada
B: United States

CURLING

Men
G: Canada
S: Great Britain
B: Sweden

Women
G: Sweden
S: Canada
B: Switzerland

SKI JUMPING

Men's Normal Hill
G: Taku Takeuchi, JPN
S: Gregor Schlierenzauer, AUT
B: Simon Ammann, SUI

Men's Large Hill
G: Thomas Diethart, AUT
S: Peter Prevc, SLO
B: Kamil Stach, POL

Men's Team
G: Austria
S: Germany
B: Slovenia

Women
G: Sara Takanashi, JPN
S: Carina Vogt, GER
B: Daniela Iraschko-Stolz, AUT

BIATHLON

Men's Sprint
G: Martin Fourcade, FRA
S: Simon Schempp, GER
B: Arnd Peiffer, GER

Men's Pursuit
G: Emil Hegle Svendsen, NOR
S: Martin Fourcade, FRA
B: Ole Einar Bjoerndalen, NOR

Men's Mass Start
G: Martin Fourcade, FRA
S: Emil Hegle Svendsen, NOR
B: Anton Shipulion, RUS

Men's Individual
G: Emil Hegle Svendsen, NOR
S: Martin Fourcade, FRA
B: Alexey Volkov, RUS

Men's Relay
G: Norway
S: Russia
B: Germany

Women's Sprint:
G: Selina Gosparin, SUI
S: Kaisa Makarainen, FIN
B: Darya Domracheva, BLR

Women's Pursuit
G: Tora Berger, NOR
S: Gabriela Soukalova, CZE
B: Kaisa Makarainen, FIN

Women's Mass Start
G: Darya Domracheva, BLR
S: Tora Berger, NOR
B: Synnore Solemdal, NOR

Women's Individual
G: Gabriela Soukalova, CZE
S: Tora Berger, NOR
B: Andrea Henkel, GER

Women's Relay
G: Germany
S: Norway
B: Russia

Mixed Relay
G: Norway
S: Czech Republic
B: France

LUGE

Men
G: Felix Loch, GER
S: Armin Zoeggler, ITA
B: David Moeller, GER

Women
G: Natalie Geisenberger, GER
S: Alex Gough, CAN
B: Tatjana Hufner, GER

Doubles
G: Tobias Wendel & Tobias Artl, GER
S: Toni Eggert & Sascha Benechen, GER
B: Peter Penz & Georg Fischler, AUT

Relay
G: Germany
S: Canada
B: Italy

NORDIC COMBINED

Normal Hill
G: Eric Frenzel, GER
S: Jason Lamy Chappuis, FRA
B: Havard Klemetsen, NOR

Large Hill
G: Eric Frenzel, GER
S: Magnus Krog, NOR
B: Jan Schmid, NOR

Team
G: Norway
S: Germany
B: France

SKELETON

Men
G: Martin Dukurs, LAT
S: Tomass Dukurs, LAT
B: Alexander Tretiakov, RUS

Women
G: Noelle Pikus-Pace, USA
S: Lizzy Yarnold, GBR
B: Janine Flock, AUT

BOBSLED

Two-man
G: Steve Holcomb, USA
S: Beat Hefti, SUI
B: Alexander Zubkov, RUS

Four-man
G: Steve Holcomb, USA
S: Oskas Melbardis, LAT
B: Maximilian Arndt, GER

Two-woman
G: Kaillie Humphries, CAN
S: Elana Meyers, USA
B: Fabienne Meyer, SUI

ALPINE SKIING

Men's Downhill
G: Aksel Lund Svindal, NOR
S: Hannes Reichelt, AUT
B: Patrick Jung, SUI

Men's Super G
G: Aksel Lund Svindal, NOR
S: Didier Defago, SUI
B: Bode Miller, USA

Men's Giant Slalom
G: Marcel Hirscher, AUT
S: Ted Ligety, USA
B: Alexis Pinturault, FRA

Men's Slalom
G: Marcel Hirscher, AUT
S: Henrik Kristoffersen, NOR
B: Felix Neureuther, GER

Men's Super Combined
G: Ted Ligety, USA
S: Alexis Pinturualt, FRA
B: Marcel Hirscher, AUT

Women's Downhill
G: Maria Hoefl-Reisch, GER
S: Tina Weirather, LIE
B: Marianne Kaufmann-Abderhalden, SUI

Women's Super G
G: Laura Gut, SUI
S: Tina Weirather, LIE
B: Anni Fenninger, AUT

Women's Giant Slalom
G: Jessica Lindell-Vikerby, SWE
S: Maria Pietila-Holmer, SWE
B: Tina Weirather, LIE

Women's Slalom
G: Mikaela Shiffrin, USA
S: Frida Hansdottir, SWE
B: Marlies Schild, AUT

Women's Super Combined
G: Maria Hoefl-Reisch, GER
S: Marie-Michele Gagnon, CAN
B: Tina Maze, SLO

CROSS COUNTRY SKIING

Men's 15 KM Classical
G: Alexey Poltoranin, KAZ
S: Petter Northug, NOR
B: Alexander Legkov, RUS

Men's Skiathlon
G: Martin Johnsrud Sundby, NOR
S: Petter Northug, NOR
B: Alex Harvey, CAN

Men's 50 KM Freestyle Mass Start
G: Chris Jespersen, NOR
S: Martin Johnsrud SUndby, NOR
B: Alexander Legkov, RUS

Men's Relay
G: Norway
S: Russia
B: Sweden

Men's Individual Sprint
G: Sergey Ustiugov, RUS
S: Alex Harvey, CAN
B: Petter Northug, NOR

Men's Team Sprint
G: Russia
S: Norway
B: Sweden

Women's 10 KM Classical
G: Justyna Kowalczyk, POL
S: Marit Bjorgen, NOR
B: Therese Johaug, NOR

Women's Skiathlon
G: Marit Bjoergen, NOR
S: Therese Johaug, NOR
B: Charlotte Kalla, SWE

Women's 30 KM Freestyle Mass Start
G: Marit Bjoergen, NOR
S: Therese Johaug, NOR
B: Charlotte Kalla, SWE

Women's Relay
G: Norway
S: Russia
B: Sweden

Women's Individual Sprint
G: Kikkan Randall, USA
S: Marit Bjoergen, NOR
B: Ingrild Flugstad Oestberg, NOR

Women's Team Sprint
G: Finland
S: Norway
B: Russia

FREESTYLE SKIING

Men's Moguls
G: Alexandre Bilodeau, CAN
S: Mikael Kingsbury, CAN
B: Patrick Deneen, USA

Men's Slopestyle
G: Nick Goepper, USA
S: James Woods, GBR
B: Bobby Brown, USA

Men's Aerials
G: Liu Zhongqing, CHN
S: Anton Kushnir, BLR
B: Qi Guangpu, CHN

Men's Halfpipe
G: Kevin Rolland, FRA
S: David Wise, USA
B: Mike Riddle, CAN

Men's Ski Cross
G: David Duncan, CAN
S: Andreas Matt, AUT
B: Chris Delbosco, CAN

Women's Moguls
G: Hannah Kearney, USA
S: Justine Dufour-Lapointe, CAN
B: Chloe Dufour-Lapointe, CAN

Women's Slopestyle
G: Kaya Turski, CAN
S: Dara Howell, CAN
B: Keri Herman, USA

Women's Aerials
G: Li Nana, CHN
S: Lydia Lassila, AUS
B: Xin Zhang, CHN

Women's Halfpipe
G: Maddie Bowman, USA
S: Ayana Onozuka, JPN
B: Devin Logan, USA

Women's Ski Cross
G: Katrin Mueller, SUI
S: Fanny Smith, SUI
B: Ophelie David, FRA

SHORT TRACK SPEED SKATING

Men's 500 Meters
G: Victor An, RUS
S: Charles Hamelin, CAN
B: J.R. Celski, USA

Men's 1000 Meters
G: Sin Da-Woon, KOR
S: Charles Hamelin, CAN
B: Kim Yun-Jae, KOR

Men's 1500 Meters
G: Sin Da-Woon, KOR
S: Lee Han-Bin, KOR
B: J.R. Celski, USA

Men's Relay
G: Canada
S: South Korea
B: United States

Women's 500 Meters
G: Fan Kexin, CHN
S: Park Seung-Hi, KOR
B: Arianna Fontana, ITA

Women's 1000 Meters
G: Shim Suk-Hee, KOR
S: Park Seung-Hi, KOR
B: Kim Alang, KOR

Women's 1500 Meters
G: Park Seung-Hi, KOR
S: Shim Suk-Hee, KOR
B: Zhou Yang, CHN

Women's Relay
G: South Korea
S: China
B: Italy

SNOWBOARDING

Men's Slopestyle
G: Roope Tonteri, FIN
S: Mark McMorris, CAN
B: Niklas Mattsson, SWE

Men's Halfpipe
G: Shaun White, USA
S: Ayumu Hirano, JPN
B: Greg Bretz, USA

Men's Snowboard Cross
G: Markus Schairer, AUT
S: Omar Visnitin, ITA
B: Stian Sivertzen, NOR

Men's Parallel Giant Slalom
G: Benjamin Karl, AUT
S: Vic Wild, RUS
B: Roland Fischnaller, ITA

Men's Parallel Slalom
G: Sylvain Dufour, FRA
S: Zan Kosir, SLO
B: Lukas Mathies, AUT

Women's Slopestyle
G: Sarka Pancochova, CZE
S: Jamie Anderson, USA
B: Spencer O'Brien, CAN

Women's Halfpipe
G: Kelly Clark, USA
S: Arielle Gold, USA
B: Xuefong Cai, CHN

Women's Snowboard Cross
G: Eva Samkova, CZE
S: Dominique Maltais, CAN
B: Lindsey Jacobellis, USA

Women's Parallel Giant Slalom
G: Isabella Labock, GER
S: Julia Dujmovita, AUT
B: Amelie Kober, GER

Women's Parallel Slalom
G: Patrizia Kummer, SUI
S: Yekaterina Tudegesheva, RUS
B: Tomoka Takeuchi, JPN

SPEED SKATING
(tomorrow)

Figure Skating Team Event - This is Really How the Scoring Works?

After tireless searching for the rules concerning the new team event at the Winter Olympics, I think I finally have figured out how it's being scored and I'm not sure they could have picked a worse way to score it.  The rational person would figure that they would just add up the scores of the four short programs and the four free skates to get a grand total, simple isn't it?

Of course not!

There are ten teams qualified, with each team have an entry skate a short program.  The top five teams will advance to the free program.  The skaters will be awarded placements for each event.  For each of the four short programs the top skater(s) will earn 10 points; 9 points for second; down to one point for tenth.  It seems to me (and don't quote me on this as it seems the ISU has been intentionally vague on the subject) that in the free skate the top skater(s) will earn 10 points, with fifth place earning six points.  This makes the short program more important than the free program and gives the Japanese (who may advance on the strength of their singles skaters) a real boost for their subpar dance and substandard pairs teams.

If we look at the skaters for the 10 teams and rank them, here are my predictions:

Pairs:
Volosozhar/Trankov, RUS - 10 pts
Duhamel/Radford, CAN - 9 pts
Peng/Zhang, CHN - 8 pts
Berton/Hotarek, ITA - 7 pts
James/Cipres, FRA - 6 pts
Castelli/Shnapir, USA - 5 pts
Wende/Wende,GER - 4 pts
Kemp/King, GBR - 3 pts
Lavrentieva/Rudyk, UKR - 2 pts
Takahashi/Kihara, JPN - 1 pt
 * Germany's Savchenko & Szolkowy are skipping the team event which could cost the Russians a point over their rivals as the Germans would be predicted to finish second in the pairs.  A seventh place finish in the short program for the Wendes vs. a second place finish for Savchenko & Szolkowy means that the Canadians, Chinese, Italians, French and Americans move up one spot - a additional point in the standings.

Men:
Patrick Chan, CAN - 10 pts
Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN - 9 pts
Evgeni Plushenko, RUS - 8 pts
Yan Han, CHN - 7 pts
Jeremy Abbott, USA - 6 pts
Peter Liebers, GER - 5 pts
Florent Amodio, FRA - 4 pts
Yakov Godorozha, UKR - 3 pts
Paul Bonifacio Parkinson, ITA - 2 pts
Matthew Parr, GBR - 1 pt

Ladies:
Mao Asada, JPN - 10 pts
Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS - 9 pts
Carolina Kostner, ITA - 8 pts
Gracie Gold, USA - 7 pts
Kaetlyn Osmond, CAN - 6 pts
Zhang Kexin, CHN - 5 pts
Maé-Bérénice Meite, FRA - 4 pts
Nathalie Weinzierl, GER - 3 pts
Natalia Popova, UKR - 2 pts
Jenna McCorkell, GBR - 1 pt

Dance:
Davis/White, USA - 10 pts
Virtue/Moir, CAN - 9 pts
Pechelat/Bourzat, FRA - 8 pts
Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS - 7 pts
Cappellini/Lanotte, ITA - 6 pts
Coombes/Buckland, GBR - 5 pts
Zhiganshina/Gazsi, GER - 4 pts
Heekin-Canedy/Dun. UKR - 3 pts
Reed/Reed, JPN - 2 pts
Huang/Zheng, CHN - 1 pt

Team Standings after Short:
Russia - 34 pts
Canada - 34 pts
United States - 28 pts
Italy - 23 pts
Japan - 22 pts
France - 22 pts
China - 21 pts
Germany - 16 pts
Ukraine - 10 pts
Great Britain - 10 pts

As one can see, it should be very close for the 4th and 5th spots moving on to the finals.  The tiebreaker will be the points accumulated in the two best disciplines.  This would give Japan the edge over France with 19 points between men and ladies; France would have 14 points between pairs and dance


Pairs:
Volosozhar/Trankov, RUS - 10 pts
Duhamel/Radford, CAN - 9 pts
Berton/Hotarek, ITA - 8 pts
Castelli/Shnapir, USA - 7 pts
Takahashi/Kihara, JPN - 6 pts

Men:
Patrick Chan, CAN - 10 pts
Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN - 9 pts
Evgeni Plushenko, RUS - 8 pts
Jeremy Abbott, USA - 7 pts
Paul Bonifacio Parkinson, ITA - 6 pts

Ladies:
Mao Asada, JPN - 10 pts
Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS - 9 pts
Carolina Kostner, ITA - 8 pts
Gracie Gold, USA - 7 pts
Kaetlyn Osmond, CAN - 6 pts

Dance:
Davis/White, USA - 10 pts
Virtue/Moir, CAN - 9 pts
Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS - 8 pts
Cappellini/Lanotte, ITA - 7 pts
Reed/Reed, JPN - 6 pts

Final Predicted Totals:
Russia - 69 pts
Canada - 68 pts
United States - 59 pts
Italy - 54 pts
Japan - 53 pts

Should boil down to a duel between Russia and Canada unless either Abbott or either Gold or Wagner can finish in the top 3 in their disciplines.  There exists the possibility that one team could have a large enough lead heading into the dance that it won't matter if they finish first or last.